Estimating Costs Of Natural Disasters - Toward An Accurated Approach
Costs of natural hazards are at historically high levels, and show an increasing trend, which is expected, because wages and inflation go up every year, but estimates are almost meaningless. When estimated damage gets high-profile media claims, like in New York City after tropical storm Sandy, the costs unsurprisingly match those and even allow for a generous overrun.
Damage estimates are more guessing than science and that, along with competing political constituencies, prevents realistic precautions - New York environmentalists object to common-sense improvements regardless of the damage…