Metaphors
are an important way to facilitate understanding of new processes.  This metaphor is constructed based on the similarity
of a rocket’s and civilization’s  transition
from one stable state to another at a higher level accomplished using a limited
supply of fuel.  For example, fossil
fuels enable the transition from sustainable pre-industrial society to another
more advanced sustainable society.  However, to realize this potential, society
must transition to a sustainable energy supply since fossil fuels are
dwindling. A major question is whether this global transition can be completed
at the same time that global development continues to improve lifestyles and
economic opportunities.   To help understand some of the complex
relationships and challenges in this transition, a metaphor is developed of the
evolving technological society as a rocket, which once launched, needs to reach
a critical velocity and altitude before obtaining a sustainable orbit. 
The basis for the metaphor is that there are two stationary locations for the
rocket- the ground (pre-Industrial society) and a stable orbit (advanced
technological society).  The rocket transitions between the two with technology
to utilize a finite amount of fuel to overcome gravity and atmospheric friction
to attain a speed, altitude, and orientation for a stable orbit.

The
process of getting a rocket into orbit requires:

1. Developing
   the rocket technology including engines, fuel, and crew compartments; 
2. Launching
   the rocket against gravity;    
3. Climbing
   through the atmosphere;   
4. Shifting
   the orientation from vertical to horizontal; and   
5. Attaining
   enough directed speed and altitude to obtain a stable orbit 

The
metaphor is that society must generate enough technological progress to again
generate sustainable energy (from solar or fusion sources). This transition
from the sustainable preindustrial agricultural lifestyle to an advanced
technological lifestyle is facilitated by the temporary use of exhaustible
fossil fuels. It is not clear if society’s transition to energy sustainability
(the metaphorical stable orbit) will be completed successfully. 

These
stages might correspond to historical periods of 1) Developing: the scientific
& industrial revolution; 2) Launching: World War II; 3) Climbing: the Cold
War and Oil Crisis; 4) Shifting: the current period of addressing entangled
issues of climate change, demographic transition and energy transition; and 5)  Attaining: the increased use of renewable energy
to sustain the process of global convergence. 

The
main metaphor is that just like a rocket, the society that advances with fossil
fuel is initially on an unsustainable path. 
After launching from the safety of the ground (leaving early
agricultural sustainability), there is another sustainable situation – the
orbit for the rocket and the use of technologically enhanced renewable energy
for the society.  Both systems, rocket
and civilization, have to reach the second stable situation before their
limited amount of fuel runs out.  There
are also many similar issues such as achieving stability, transitioning to new
stages (phases), and the passing through the atmospheric friction (GHG release).

Figure  SEQ Figure \* ARABIC 1. Fuel use in both transition in transitioning society (top) from one
sustainable economy (agrarian) to another (advanced sustainable) and in
launching a rocket into orbit (bottom)

It
should be noticed that there are important differences in the transitions of
society and an actual rocket. Rockets are often multistage meaning that the
lower parts of the rocket are jettisoned after the fuel has been
exhausted.  This reduces the mass of the rocket to ease the work necessary
to achieve the orbital velocity.  However, in contrast the transition to
sustainability seems to occur as more of the world’s population joins a
developed lifestyle with its increased demand for energy. In the metaphor, this
could be viewed as adding mass to the rocket as it climbs, which then requires
more work to obtain a stable orbit.

There
are many modes of failure. A rocket launch can crash from loss of stability,
fuel tank explosion, too slow acceleration leading to inefficient use of fuel, too
much acceleration that damage the engines,.  The
rocket might also heat up too much when going through the atmosphere or if the
orbit is too low.  The rocket might not
orient correctly for a stable orbit. 
Another failure would be for the rocket to enter a stable orbit but lose
the capability to support the crew.

Does
this metaphor help in understanding the transition to energy
sustainability?  What do you think?