"In short, both success and failure are both overrated."
Take a look at Thomas Rid and Marc Hecker's December 2009 - January 2010 Terror Fringe policy review and you might just feel a little blown away. The article published by the Hoover Institution, starts out with a slow rev' as the noggin' starts kickin' back in gear and the it's smooth sailing from then on.
The two authors expertly craft an accurate and freaky picture of the vitality of war in this modern world. "Globalization, driven by a revolution in communication technology, has changed terrorism more than it has changed insurgency." It has changed because "the critical mass of people necessary to pass the threshold to a viable terrorist movement has shrunk." Because of technology, "the recruitment market for terrorists is now global."
"Yes, new technologies and new ideologies have created spectacular advantages for terrorists." Advantages like "nizam, la tanzim: system, not organization," or a worldwide web-centric recruiting
"Most intelligence and security agencies come to a similar set of conclusions — and so does the al Qaeda leadership. They are convinced that the media in general and the web in particular are crucial to their cause.
"Telecommunication technology is one additional variable that has affected the conditions of this equilibrium. Extremists will continue to find grievances, know-how, money, and each other online, and the barrier of entry into brick-and-mortar terrorism will remain lower than it used to be in the past.
"It is now easier for terrorists to enter the game and stay in the game, even if they cannot progress. In the future violent extremism will likely be more resilient and more innovative, but less professional, less successful, and ideologically less appealing, although it might occasionally erupt in violence.
"The level of terrorist aggression cannot be eliminated for good, neither through successful counterterrorism nor through successful counterinsurgency.
"Like crime, terrorism may be a form of violence that can only be contained, deterred, and denied, but not wiped out."
