Equations of Basic Seldon or Prime Radiant
Equations of Section 42R254
Equations of Section 33A2D17 or Terminus Equation
Equations of Section 33A2D17 or Terminus Equation
Equations of Section 33A2D17 or Terminus Equation
Psychohistory
Psychohistory, a science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe, combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make (nearly) exact predictions of the collective actions of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire. Include the controversial study of the psychological motivations of historical events. It combines the insights of psychotherapy with the research methodology of the social sciences to understand the emotional origin of the social and political behavior of groups and nations, past and present. Its subject matter is childhood and the family (especially child abuse), and psychological studies of anthropology and ethnology (must) with the three axioms of Isaac Asimov.
Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics and mathematics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory. Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon (in other word, Isaac Asimov), established two axioms:
Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics and mathematics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory. Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon (in other word, Isaac Asimov), established two axioms:
1. That the population whose behavior was modeled should be sufficiently large.
2. That the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses.
3. That Human Beings are the only sentient intelligence in the Galaxy.
Newton’s third law of Motion
The important laws and axioms of the world are very simple and direct on human being for that reason generally people can not understand or realize it, because it is very simple. After invention everybody says it’s very simple! We knew it, but nobody never realize like inventor. Such as I can say about Newton’s third law of motion;
"To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction."
And can be summarized as follows:
“Whenever a first body exerts a force F on a second body, the second body exerts a force −F on the first body. F and −F are equal in magnitude and opposite in direction.”
But before the invention of third law, do human being not facilitated by the law of motion? Off course, but after invention, human only understand about their working policy by the third law and it’s developing our civilization. Just Newton first realized the simple but very important law of the universe.
Development of Psychohistory
Some literary critics have described Asimov's psychohistory as a reformulation, either for better or worse, of Karl Marx's theory of history (historical materialism) or of Kant's theory of controllable history, though Asimov denied any direct influence. Arguably, Asimov's psychohistory departs significantly from Marx's general theory of history based on modes of production (as distinct from Marx's model of the capitalist economy, where "natural laws" work themselves out with "iron necessity") in that psychohistory is predictive (if only in the sense of involving precisely stated probabilities), and in that psychohistory is extrapolated from individual psychology and even from physics. Psychohistory also has echoes of modernization theory and of work in the social sciences that by the 1960s would lead to attempts at large-scale social prediction and control such as Project Camelot.
Hari Seldon, in other word, Isaac Asimov did not describe any law or equation of Psychohistory, he just state three axioms. Isaac just say Psychohistory will works when fill up the three axioms.
He predicted it’s related the behavior of Molecules of gases which Kinetic Theory of gases. It also may relate the Browne’s Motion of gases.
Second axiom state that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses.
So what is the result about Psychohistory theme?
He says about Kinetic Theory of gases. But certainly, human being is not molecules of gases. Human has an intelligent mind and a life. So, how will it be possible? Its just prediction, May similar to Kinetic Theory of gases. But how? He established it through “Theory of Prediction”.
Axiom or postulate
In traditional logic, an axiom or postulate is a proposition that is not proved or demonstrated but considered to be either self-evident, or subject to necessary decision. Therefore, its truth is taken for granted, and serves as a starting point for deducing and inferring other (theory dependent) truths.
Self-evident
In informal speech, self-evident often merely means obvious, but the epistemological definition is more strict. In epistemology (theory of knowledge), a self-evident proposition is one that is known to be true by understanding its meaning without proof.
Some epistemologists deny that any proposition can be self-evident. For most others, the belief that oneself is conscious is offered as an example of self-evidence. However, one's belief that someone else is conscious is not epistemically self-evident.
The following propositions are often said to be self-evident:
A finite whole is greater than any of its parts.
It is impossible for the something to be and not be at the same time in the same manner.
Certain forms of argument from self-evidence are considered fallacious or abusive in debate. For example, if a proposition is claimed to be self-evident, it is an argumentative fallacy to assert that disagreement with the proposition indicates misunderstanding of it.
It is sometimes said that a self-evident proposition is one whose denial is self-contradictory. It is also sometimes said that an analytic proposition is one whose denial is self-contradictory. But these two uses of the term self-contradictory mean entirely different things. A self-evident proposition cannot be denied without knowing that one contradicts oneself (provided one actually understands the proposition). An analytic proposition cannot be denied without a contradiction, but one may fail to know that there is a contradiction because it may be a contradiction that can be found only by a long and abstruse line of logical or mathematical reasoning. Most analytic propositions are very far from self-evident. Similarly, a self-evident proposition need not be analytic: my knowledge that I am conscious is self-evident but not analytic.
An analytic proposition, however long a chain of reasoning it takes to establish it, ultimately contains a tautology, and is thus only a verbal truth: a truth established through the verbal equivalence of a single meaning. For those who admit the existence of abstract concepts, the class of non-analytic self-evident truths can be regarded as truths of the understanding--truths revealing connections between the meanings of ideas.
Moral propositions can also be said to be self-evident. For example, Alexander Hamilton cited the following moral propositions as self-evident:
The means ought to be proportioned to the end.
Every power ought to be commensurate with its object.
There ought to be no limitation of a power destined to affect a purpose which is itself incapable of limitation.
A famous claim of the self-evidence (Theory of Prediction) of a moral truth is in the United States Declaration of Independence, which states, "We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."; philosophically, that proposition is not necessarily self-evident, and the subsequent propositions surely are not. Nevertheless, many would agree that the proposition we ought to treat subjects known to be equal in a certain sense equally in regard to that sense is morally self-evident. Thus, as Thomas Jefferson proposed, one can hold the propositions to be self-evident as the basis for practical, even revolutionary, behaviors.
Compare between few important laws of science
Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory. But Human is not molecules of gases. Human has a strong mind and intellectual creativity.
For primary Self-evident or assumption we just Compare between few important laws of science. Such as:
Newton's law of universal gravitation and Coulomb's law.
Rutherford's Atomic Model and Planetary Model.
Newton's law of universal gravitation
Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation states that every massive particle in the universe attracts every other massive particle with a force which is directly proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them.
very point mass attracts every single other point mass by a force pointing along the line intersecting both points. The force is directly proportional to the product of the two masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between the point masses:
where:
* ‘F’ is the magnitude of the gravitational force between the two point masses,
* ‘G’ is the gravitational constant,
* ‘m’ is the mass of the first point mass,
* ‘m’ is the mass of the second point mass, and
* ‘r’ is the distance between the two point masses.
Coulomb's law
Coulomb's law is a law of physics describing the electrostatic interaction between electrically charged particles. It was studied and first published in 1783 by French physicist Charles Augustin de Coulomb and was essential to the development of the theory of electromagnetism. Nevertheless, the dependence of the electric force with distance (inverse square law) had been proposed previously by Joseph Priestley and the dependence with both distance and charge had been discovered, but not published, by Henry Cavendish, prior to Coulomb's works.
Newton's law of gravitation resembles Coulomb's law of electrical forces, which is used to calculate the magnitude of electrical force between two charged bodies. Both are inverse-square laws, in which force is inversely proportional to the square of the distance between the bodies. Coulomb's Law has the product of two charges in place of the product of the masses, and the electrostatic constant in place of the gravitational constant.
Coulomb's law may be stated in scalar form as follows:
The magnitude of the electrostatic force between two point electric charges is directly proportional to the product of the magnitudes of each of the charges and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between the two charges.
(A graphical representation of Coulomb's law)
The scalar form of Coulomb's law will only describe the magnitude of the electrostatic force between two electric charges. If direction is required, then the vector form is required as well. The magnitude of the electrostatic force (F) on a charge (q1) due to the presence of a second charge (q2), is given by
Where r is the distance between the two charges and ‘ke’ a proportionality constant. A positive force implies a repulsive interaction, while a negative force implies an attractive interaction.
The proportionality constant “k”, called Coulomb's constant (sometimes called Coulomb's force constant).
Rutherford's Atomic Model
Rutherford's Atomic Theory was a revolutionary theory regarding the nature of atomic structure that varied significantly from past theories on the same subject matter. In fact, although the Rutherford Atomic Theory was first posited in 1911, many facets of it are still accepted by the majority of the scientific community. He compared his Atomic model to the planetary model, but actually its not, it’s had too much limitation to complete the planetary model. He says a number of tiny electrons circling around the nucleus like planets around the sun.
Key point of Rutherford Atomic Model
The electron cloud of the atom does not influence alpha particle scattering.
A large number of the atom's charges, up to a number equal to about half the atomic mass in hydrogen units, are concentrated in very small volume at the center of the atom. These are responsible for deflecting both alpha and beta particles.
The mass of heavy atoms such as gold is mostly concentrated in the central charge region, since calculations show it is not deflected or moved by the high speed alpha particles, which have very high momentum in comparison to electrons, but not with regard to a heavy atom as a whole.
Fig: A stylized representation of the Rutherford model of a lithium atom (nuclear structure anachronistic, number of tiny electrons circling around the nucleus like planets around the sun.)
Applied Psychohistory
Established the psychohistory through the Theory of Prediction and Kinetic theory of Gases, Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. Isaac also discuss about Quantum Mechanics in psychohistory.
Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion.
First axiom state the population whose behavior was modeled should be sufficiently large.
But it does not be described how many people will be sufficiently large.
We can assumption the sufficiently large by donated, “Nγ”.
Let where ‘γ’ (Gamma) is Isaac constant or Isaac Galactic Empire constant.
And “N” (bold ‘N’) is number of Population of Galactic Empire.
Now consider an “Absolute Foundation” which fulfills the three axioms of Asimov’s Psychohistory.
This absolute foundation is a large community of peoples where population is sufficiently large, Nγ. That the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses and That Human Beings are the only sentient intelligence in the Galaxy.
Definition
Applied Psychohistory is conservatory of combine science that can be apply to human being on earth, (In addition) to make (nearly) exact predictions of the shared application of large groups of people such as earth, country and large community.
Taxonomy of Applied Psychohistory
Then Applied Psychohistory is sorting in four segments:
Asimov’s Axioms.
Theory of Prediction
Hatashe’s Hypothesis.
Mental Science.
Asimov’s Axioms
We know that Isaac Asimov has given three axioms:
1. That the population whose behavior was modeled should be sufficiently large.
2. That the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses.3. That Human Beings are the only sentient intelligence in the Galaxy. Hatashe’s HypothesisHatashe’s Hypothesis classified in three categories:Hatashe’s Extension.Hatashe’s Law.Wiki Process theory. Hatashe’s ExtensionThe extension has few statements such as:The extension has few statements such as:1. A community consists of only sentient intelligence knows as human dispersed throughout sufficiently large population. Psychohistory considers a man or woman as a half human or half creature.2. The performances of the designers are negligible compared to the total performance of the application. Similarly population to the community. 3. The human of the community are separately identical and have educated and strong work abilities.4. The designers should in random thinking with high work abilities. 5. The psyche and accepted good judgment between the designers may variation, but a human (designers) should consist of two half human with matching (nearly) understanding and exertion capabilities. 6. Everybody can move freely in understanding, in physical and self-governing to each others.7. Emotionally impact may occurs between the designers but make sure it should not put together outcome on the residents of the communities. 8. The behavior and performance of the population should record by the designers but the population should remain in ignorance of the recording, as well results of the Application. 9. Device, time and designers of the application should blueprint on depend of total population and/or character of environment of the region. (* the word “Application” used as term of word “Project” and similarly word “Designers” to “Manpower of the Project”)Hatashe’s LawsAccording to the three axioms of Isaac Asimov and Hatashe’s hypothesis of extension, there three laws are establishing:1. In an absolute foundation; certainly, sufficiently large peoples will attentively work in leading development application for human being and do not thrive in isolation.2. The Installation Momentum of the application in sustainable times is directly proportional to the summation of Isaac Ratio and Seldon Ration;(a) Isaac Ratio: the ration between total designers of the application and number of designers will establish in office their absolute performance.(b) Seldon Ration: the ration between numbers of hypothetical dormant sentient designers and the total designers of the application. 3. The Sustainable Installation time is directly proportional to the total Time of installation and inversely proportional to the value of Installation Momentum in sustainable times. Explanation of LawsFirst LawIn an absolute foundation; certainly, sufficiently large peoples will attentively work in leading development application for human being and do not thrive in isolation.Actually the first law is the summery of Isaac Asimov three axioms. In other words it’s a ground-breaking theory and code of the Psychohistory combine with Faruk Khna’s theory of prediction. Second lawthe Installation Momentum (Ft) of the application in sustainable times (t) is directly proportional to the summation of Isaac Ratio (IR) and Seldon Ratio(SR); Isaac Ratio (IR)(a) Isaac Ratio (IR): the ration between total designers (N) of the application and number of designers (n) establish in office their absolute performance.Seldon Ration (SR)(a) Seldon Ration (SR): the ration between numbers of hypothetical dormant sentient designers (N-n) and the total designers (N) of the application; So, the second law in mathematically, “N” is totaling number of Designers of Application.“ρ” is a Galactic Constant. Applicable when “N = Nγ”.Seldon Constant“S” is a constant of Seldon plan or Seldon Constant. Consider its value is 8.94 by several examinations. (Authentic value is 8.943518519)“Ft" is value of Install in sustainable Installation times (t). So,Several times experiment successes when 20% n 60% of total designers of Application (N). The value of n > 60% is complicated and n > 70% to 90% is so difficult and may impractical in realistic. Third Lawthe Sustainable Installation time (t) is directly proportional to the total Time of installation (T) and inversely proportional to the value of Installation Momentum in sustainable times (Ft); So, in mathematically, Compare the equation (v) and (vi), we can write =>‘T’ total expected duration of the Application.“S” is a constant of Seldon plan or Seldon Constant. Its value is 8.94.“Ft" is value of Installation Momentum in sustainable times.“t” minimum sustainable Installation times.Seldon consider 1000 years Installation times (T) in his plan but in realistic it’s difficult. So in experiment; I considered minimum 20 years to 100 years. The value of ‘T’, ‘N’, and ‘N’&‘n’ is associated each others (not in depended) on design of application. And application’s necessity is very important.(Bold ‘N’ is total population)Wiki Process theoryFew scientist say, Bernoulli predicted the kinetic theory of Gases to compare the Gas molecules to the billiard balls in random motion, bouncing off each other and of sides of the pool table.And Asimov used the behavior of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. That is Kinetic theory of Gases.Its need to mention, in use wikipedia Project as a steady application and compare to the Kinetic theory, calculated and experimented with others projects more than thousand times. In few running and incomplete project, applied the Newton’s Forward and Newton’s backward formula to resolve or assumption the value of installation time, number of designers, number of population of the project/ application area and etc. In several experiment of psychohistory, used minimum ten years of the application installation times. Theory of Jimmy Sanger“When a requirement is moving up in the sufficiently large number of population, a design can be relevant according to set of laws of Psychohistory (a) hypothetically increase the requirements in the population, and/or (b) be supposed to create a sustainable understanding of the application to the population.” Rate of Installation Momentum and breakdownPercentage of achievement (Installation Momentum) and breakdown within expected time (total duration):“In experiment of Second and third law, its provided evidence the rate of breakdown (f) is directly proportional to the summation of Isaac Ratio and negative sign of Seldon Ration; In mathematically, Where,“fT" Rate of breakdown (fail)“N” is total number of Designers of Application.“ρ” is a Galactic Constant. Applicable when “N = Nγ”.“S” is a constant of Seldon plan or Seldon Constant. Consider its value is 8.94 by several examinations. (Authentic value is 8.943518519)“Ft" is value of Installation Momentum in sustainable Installation times (t). Percentage of achievement (Installation Momentum) of the Application (F or FT) within expected time (T) is,F = 100 - Ft………………………… (ix) First law and wiki process theoryCertainly, sufficiently large peoples will attentively work in leading development application for human being and do not thrive in isolation. It’s so much simple and direct like as Newton’s third law of motion.It is nature of human being that certainly, they will attentively work in leading development application for human being. The best example is Wikipedia. Day by day all of knowledge of civilization store up in here by large number of voluntary wikipedian, and they are working without pay. In practical, if we consider Wikipedia as an application and wiki territory as an absolute foundation, which is sufficiently large, so it’s, follow the three axioms, three law and theory of prediction.Several times I tested the hypothesis in lots of applications to consider Wikipedia as a constant application. The Wikipedia RevolutionWikipedia, the free encyclopedia. The earliest known proposal for an online encyclopedia was made by Rick Gates in 1993, but the concept of an open source web-based online encyclopedia was proposed a little later by Richard Stallman around 1999. The Wikipedia, was formally launched on 15 January 2001 by Jimmy Wales and Larry Sanger using the concept and technology of a wiki pioneered by Ward Cunningham. Initially Wikipedia was created as a complement and 'feeder' to Nupedia, an expert-written online encyclopedia project, in order to provide an additional source of draft articles and ideas. It quickly overtook Nupedia, growing to become a large global project, and originating a wide range of additional reference projects. Today Wikipedia includes over 14 million freely usable articles in hundreds of languages worldwide, and content from millions of contributors. As of 21 February 2010 there are approximately 3,200,452 articles only in the English Wikipedia. All of created by the world wide wikipedian with cost free service. Wikipedians are people who write and edit the pages for Wikipedia as opposed to readers who simply read the articles by create a account in wikipedia. So, Anyone can be a Wikipedian. The number of named accounts has grown to millions (currently exactly 11,694,774). Most account holders are not regular contributors, however. About 250,000 new accounts are created every month, and these numbers are growing. About 300,000 editors have edited Wikipedia more than 10 times. Approximately the same number, 300,000 editors, edit Wikipedia every month; out of those, about 50,000 do more than 5 edits and 5,000, more than 100 edits.Equations of Basic Seldon or Prime RadiantEquations of Section 42R254Equations of Section 33A2D17 or Terminus EquationThese six equations are called as Basic Seldon Equations of Psychohistry or Equations of Prime Radiant
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