Random Thoughts

  As a futurist, I think, speak, and write about the future. A large part of what I do is to make forecasts on the future and what might happen. This forecasting is based upon analysis of trends and the underlying forces and flows that create and shape these trends. The more specific the forecast or the further out the forecast, the higher probability of error in the forecast. When I look 5, 10 or 20 years out I look at the macro forces at play in the world to predict the overarching changes and reorganizations that will occur. Here in this column the future focus is 3 months to 3…

It used to be you went to see a doctor, he gave expert advice and you did what you were told. In today's world, patients have the opportunity to become more knowledgeable, sometimes increasing problems (diagnosing themselves) and sometimes causing impatience with hurried doctors who don't want to argue but most often a better understanding of the issues is good for everyone. Due to that, there is growing interest in shared decision-making (SDM) in which the clinician and patient go through all phases of the decision-making process together, share treatment preferences, and reach an agreement…

In Screw 'Sustainability' - And I Am Here To Tell You Why we discussed the fact that Mother Nature is a bloody bitch. She is the mother of catastrophe. She has nurtured brilliant innovations like cells and DNA but she has also given us 142 mass extinctions, 80 glaciations in the last two million years, a planet that may have once been a frozen iceball, and a klatch of global warmings in which the temperature has soared by 18 degrees in ten years or less. Mother Nature has sunken the pleasant habitat of land creatures to the bottom of swamps and has lifted the havens of sea creatures --…

Não sei se chore, se ria.Algumas ideias da conferência da American Association for the Advancement of Science, e sobre Saúde e Nutrição, onde se fala: …da pegada ecológica originada pelos excessos alimentares… “Much of the present high calorie density food production has a massive carbon footprint and requires wasteful amounts of energy and water. If we are to feed the world – 8 billion people in just 20 years time – with a healthy diet, we need to deliver a rescue plan for the planet – not just to address global warming, but to ensure we have sufficient healthy food to feed everyone.” …do…

  I have written several columns about cell phones in the past.  Each one was due to milestones of growth.  The speed of growth in the use of cell phones continues to be astounding.  It was announced last week by the International Telecommunication Union that the number of total global cell phone subscribers will exceed the number of non-subscribers for the first time in 2008.    When you stop and think about this, it is nothing less than amazing.  This means that more than half of all human beings alive today have cell phones.  That includes all…

Ahhhh, Valentine's Day. Bad food, shoddy restaurant service - and you have no choice about it. The Soviet Union had toilet paper lines but they didn't force Valentine's Day on its people. Really, anyone who is unsure what mandates accomplish only needs to look at ethanol for a modern comparison of why things suffer when you force a solution on people. But all is not lost. There's science in love, you know, and that means there's science in Valentine's Day. Science on Valentine's Day is like cold fusion instead of ethanol. Completely wonderful. And we have it all right here. Ahhhh,…

  In the last post I suggested that the U.S. learn from Europe in the use of high speed trains as a core component of a national transportation system.  Trains are more energy efficient than cars, give off far less greenhouse emissions than airplanes, rarely get cancelled or delayed due to ‘weather’ or ‘flow control’ and depart and arrive near the central city.  Given that America is much larger than any country currently utilizing high speed trains, it can only be a part of the transportation mix.  What might the composite national transportation profile look like in 2015…

High speed trains must, and will become an essential component of the U.S. transportation system during the next 20 years. This seems to be obvious, but is something that the (lack of) leadership in Washington D.C. has yet to seriously consider.  A combination of lack of vision, deeply entrenched vested interests, a troubled Amtrak system and a ‘not invented here’ mindset has combined to allow the U.S. to be woefully behind the curve when it comes to both rail transport and an intelligent, integrated national transportation system. Flying has become an extremely unpleasant and…

The price of oil topped $100 on January 2 and again on January 3. During the days since I have received emails and phone calls from regular readers, complimenting me on my correct prediction. As I wrote here more than two months ago, the price of oil would not only cross the $100 price barrier, but would trade in the $80-125 range for the next year A year ago, on the syndicated program “First Business”, when oil was trading in the $50-55 range, I predicted that oil would go over $80 during 2007, which, at the time was a contrary view, as oil had been down trending for several weeks at that…

  Happy New Year to all of you that are regular readers of this blog and to those of you who might be coming to it the first time.  May 2008 be a happy year for everyone.  I can promise that it will be another year of upheaval and change, probably exceeding 2007 in that regard.  I will submit to you my annual predictions, both general and specific, for the year within the next two weeks.  Right now I would like to take a quick look at several late in the year developments of 2007 that provide indication as to where we are going and what will lay ahead for us in 2008…